AFIDEP Study Links Population Growth to Climate Action Ahead of COP29

By Shadrack Nyakoe

As the global community prepares for the 29th Conference of Parties (COP29) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, set to take place in Baku, Azerbaijan this November, a new study by the African Institute for Development Policy (AFIDEP) is igniting a fresh debate on the intersection of population growth and climate action.

The research, published in the Vienna Yearbook of Population Research of the Vienna Institute of Demography and Austrian Academy of Sciences, highlights the potential of mainstreaming family planning into climate strategies as a way to curb greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

While the focus of the climate crisis has largely been on high-income nations—whose per capita emissions and consumption patterns contribute disproportionately to global GHG emissions—the AFIDEP study calls for a broader perspective.

The research led by Prof. Nyovani Madise, the Director of Development Policy and Head of AFIDEP Malawi, urges a closer examination of the role of population growth, particularly in rapidly expanding countries like Nigeria, Ethiopia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, which are expected to see significant population increases by 2050.

“There is no doubt that populous countries such as India, China, and Nigeria are major contributors to global emissions. However, evidence regarding the role of population growth in climate change is mixed,” said Prof. Nyovani. “While the current framework, which emphasizes mitigation by high-income nations and adaptation by low-income, low-emitting countries, makes sense in the short term, it is insufficient to address the future impacts of rapid population growth.”

Economic Development and GHG Emissions

The study challenges the prevailing view that population growth is a secondary factor in climate change, overshadowed by industrial consumption patterns in wealthier countries.

As Prof. Nyovani’s research points out, fast-growing, low-income nations are likely to follow the same unsustainable development paths taken by Western countries, leading to greater land use changes, increased demand for energy, and rising GHG emissions as these nations industrialize.

“These countries will not remain static in terms of their economic development. Rapid urbanization and land-use changes to meet food and housing needs, coupled with increasing energy demands, will inevitably lead to greater environmental pressures,” the study notes.

The research critiques the dominant narrative promoted by climate justice movements, which emphasizes the responsibility of high-income nations to bear the financial burden of global climate action. While such arguments have merit, Prof. Nyovani and her team argue that they overlook the critical role of population dynamics, particularly in fast-growing but poor African nations that are seen primarily as victims of climate-induced disasters.

A call for forward-looking investments

The AFIDEP research calls for development aid to focus on curbing population growth in a voluntary and ethical manner, helping couples achieve their desired family size while simultaneously addressing education, poverty reduction, and environmental sustainability.

The study emphasizes the importance of empowering younger populations—who tend to have lower per capita GHG emissions and are more likely to adopt sustainable consumption patterns—in shaping a climate-friendly future.

“Age structure matters. While older populations tend to have higher per capita energy consumption and are less likely to change their behaviors, younger populations represent an opportunity for a more sustainable path forward. Their fertility intentions can be shaped by climate-conscious policies, creating a generation that is more attuned to the environmental challenges of the future,” the researchers argue.

A dontroversial debate ahead of COP29

The timing of the research, released just ahead of COP29, is likely to stir controversy. Discussions about population control in the context of climate action have long been contentious. Past efforts, including policies promoting “population engineering” and fertility reductions, were abandoned due to ethical concerns and unintended consequences.

Despite this, the AFIDEP study revives the argument that addressing population growth—through voluntary, rights-based family planning initiatives—could be a key component in reducing future emissions, particularly in nations on the verge of significant economic expansion.

“Reducing childbearing is arguably a simpler and more effective strategy for lowering emissions than overhauling consumption patterns in already industrialized nations,” said Prof. Nyovani. “But this can only be achieved through empowering choices, not coercion.”

A global shift required

More than 100 countries have committed to reducing their GHG emissions by 45% by 2030 and reaching net zero by 2050.

However, current trends suggest the world is not on track to meet these targets, with global emissions projected to rise by 9% by 2030 compared to 2010 levels.

While smaller countries like Bhutan, Suriname, and Panama have already achieved net zero emissions, the AFIDEP study stresses that without substantial financial and technological support, low-income countries will struggle to meet their food security and energy needs in a sustainable manner.

“If the world is serious about addressing both population growth and climate change, then development aid must prioritize investments in sustainable agriculture, renewable energy, and family planning in fast-growing, poor nations,” the researchers conclude. “Unfortunately, the financial support required for these up-front investments has yet to materialize.”

As COP29 approaches, the research is expected to fuel renewed discussions about how population dynamics and climate action should be integrated into global climate policies, offering a controversial but critical perspective on the future of sustainable development.